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It turns out that a long pause between Federal Reserve rate actions is historically good for stocks, according to LPL Financial. The pause, which has reached 280 days, is the second-longest in modern market history, LPL noted, behind only the 2006-07 pause that reached 446 days. "Long pauses are typically good for stocks, and the gains achieved since the Fed's last hike in July 2023 are consistent with recent history," said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. "The pace and rise of the S & P 500 during that time are in line with what we are seeing now." Still, the strategist observed that the sectors that have historically outperformed during long pauses are financials and energy, which generally return 15% for the period.
Persons: LPL, Jeff Buchbinder, Buchbinder Organizations: Financial, Investors, LPL
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOver-reliance on the Fed caused market volatility, says Jefferies' David ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist; Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial Group; and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Federal Reserve's pivot on interest rates.
Persons: Jefferies, David Zervos David Zervos, Peter Boockvar, Steve Liesman Organizations: Fed, Jefferies, Bleakley Financial
This year the rate markets have come back to a more sensible reality after flirting with the la-la land of 7 cuts. And all the while, the more sensible equity markets have paid only fleeting attention to their rate brother's whining. As a guy who was brought up in the fixed income and currency markets, I'm increasingly finding more sensibility in the equity markets as I head into later stages of my career. Having five-year inflation expectations (as measured by the 5-year breakeven inflation rate) never ramp higher while cumulative inflation surged around 20% since January 2021 is a testament to his stalwart success. There have been no fumbles at the Fed so far during a protracted fight to ensure anchored inflation expectations and long term price stability.
Persons: Consensonomics, Jerome Powell's, Jay, Janet Yellen's, Janet, Stanley Druckenmiller, I'm, David Zervos Organizations: Equity
"The Fed is the central bank most able to chart its own course," Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a client note Wednesday. It was the first time the Riksbank had cut since 2016 and takes its main policy rate down to 3.75%. The Riksbank's move was the second central bank cut of the year, as the Swiss National Bank reduced its key rate a quarter point in March in what was seen as a surprise action. Reductions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank are expected to come next, possibly within a month. "With the exception of Japan, developed markets are embarking on a program of rate cuts," Hollenhorst said.
Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, BOE, Mark, Bailey, Citi's Hollenhorst, Christine Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Lagarde, Hollenhorst Organizations: U.S . Federal, Citigroup, Citi, Sweden's, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of America Locations: U.S, Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with David Zervos and Anne Walsh at Milken ConferenceHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.
Persons: David Zervos, Anne Walsh, Brian Sullivan, Organizations: CNBC
Qualcomm shares spike on earnings and revenue beat
  + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailQualcomm shares spike on earnings and revenue beatDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist, and Victoria Greene, G Squared Private Wealth CIO, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk Qualcomm quarterly results.
Persons: David Zervos, Victoria Greene Organizations: Qualcomm, Jefferies, Private Wealth
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOur financial sectors are in incredible shape, says Jefferies' David ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his take on the CPI print and the equity market's reaction, if the strategist is looking for rate cuts this year, and more.
Persons: Jefferies, David Zervos David Zervos Organizations: Jefferies
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe BOJ's decision to hike rates isn't a move toward a 'very hawkish' stance, strategist saysDavid Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, discusses the Bank of Japan's historic decision to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years.
Persons: David Zervos Organizations: Jefferies, Bank of
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a relatively slow rate cut desire from the Fed, says Jefferies' David ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Zervos' response to Austan Goolsbee's latest comments, the question marks around the macroeconomy, and much more.
Persons: Jefferies, David Zervos David Zervos, Austan Organizations: Jefferies
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Jefferies' David Zervos and Evans May Wealth's Brooke MayJefferies' David Zervos and Evans May Wealth's Brooke May join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones notch another record day.
Persons: Jefferies, David Zervos, Evans, Wealth's Brooke May Jefferies, Wealth's Brooke, Dow Jones
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings will take this market higher, says Evans May Wealth's Brooke MayJefferies' David Zervos and Evans May Wealth's Brooke May join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones notch another record day.
Persons: Evans, Wealth's Brooke May Jefferies, David Zervos, Wealth's Brooke, Dow Jones
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe don't need rate cuts to get risk assets to go higher, says Jefferies’ David ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist, joins 'Money Makers' to discuss his thoughts on Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic's comments on rate cuts, his expectations from the Fed following the hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI numbers, and more.
Persons: Jefferies, David Zervos David Zervos, Raphael Bostic's Organizations: Jefferies, Atlanta Fed, PPI
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets will reward the Fed for maintaining credibility, not giving in to cut pressure: David ZervosCharlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel head of investment group and David Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged.
Persons: David Zervos Charlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel, David Zervos Organizations: Jefferies
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCan't make a case for a reccesion, Fed cuts could come in May, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Warren, David Zervos Organizations: Jefferies, 3Fourteen Research
Watch CNBC's full interview with Warren Pies and David Zervos
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Warren Pies and David ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist and Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Warren Pies, David Zervos David Zervos, Warren Organizations: Jefferies, 3Fourteen Research
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis year taught us that 'supply is the driver of inflation,' says Jefferies' David ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why investors shouldn't fall for recession calls in 2024, when Powell will be ready to cut rates, and the Federal Reserve's moves in the new year.
Persons: Jefferies, David Zervos David Zervos, Powell Organizations: Jefferies
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCurrent Fed balance sheet is actually a 'pretty stimulative structure', says Jefferies' David ZervosHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.
Persons: Jefferies, David Zervos, Brian Sullivan, Organizations: CNBC
Debate: Fed's credit for lowering inflation
  + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDebate: Fed's credit for lowering inflationDavid Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss whether the Fed's hikes have been effective, the interest rate outlook, and more.
Persons: David Zervos, Steve Liesman Organizations: Jefferies
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailToday was 'as close to a victory lap as I've seen' from Powell, says Jefferies David ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist and Barbara Doran, BD8 Capital Partners CIO, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk today's Federal Reserve decision, the day's market action, the latest batch of earnings and more.
Persons: Powell, Jefferies David Zervos David Zervos, Barbara Doran Organizations: Jefferies, BD8 Capital
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDoorDash earnings show the consumer is still spending on discretionary items: BD8's Barbara DoranDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist and Barbara Doran, BD8 Capital Partners CIO, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk today's Federal Reserve decision, the day's market action, the latest batch of earnings and more.
Persons: Barbara Doran David Zervos, Barbara Doran Organizations: Jefferies, BD8 Capital
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed has restrictive rate policy but not a restrictive balance sheet, says Jefferies' David ZervosDavid Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, and CNBC's Rick Santelli join 'The Exchange' to discuss the rise in yields being driven by term premiums, the prospect of the Fed changing its balance sheet policy, and the need for Fed policy to be further restrictive.
Persons: Jefferies, David Zervos David Zervos, Rick Santelli Organizations: Fed, Jefferies
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket underestimating how important Fed will see recent inflation data, says Jefferies' ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the change in Fed policy expectations, which data should catch the attention of the Federal Reserve, and more.
Persons: Jefferies, David Zervos Organizations: Jefferies, Federal Reserve
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumer savings is trending down, but a soft landing is still possible, says PGIM's Tom PorcelliTom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income, and David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, along with CNBC's Steve Liesman, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the market reaction to today's weaker-than-expected ADP report, international fiscal policy compared to the U.S., and whether or not a soft landing is still possible.
Persons: Tom Porcelli Tom Porcelli, David Zervos, Steve Liesman Organizations: Jefferies Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with PGIM's Tom Porcelli and Jefferies' David ZervosTom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income, and David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, along with CNBC's Steve Liesman, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the market reaction to today's weaker-than-expected ADP report, international fiscal policy compared to the U.S., and whether or not a soft landing is still possible.
Persons: PGIM's Tom Porcelli, Jefferies, David Zervos Tom Porcelli, David Zervos, Steve Liesman Organizations: Jefferies Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe'll get economic slowing but won't get 'more sinister' period for growth, says Jefferies' ZervosDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the recent move higher in yields, whether there are concerns around fiscal credibility, and what will eventually calm bond investors down.
Persons: Jefferies, David Zervos Organizations: Jefferies
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